Government sabotages growth through property rights uncertainties and ignoring Moody’s warning shots

The heated debate between proponents of property protection and those in favour of  confiscation (expropriation without compensation) has been characterised by a lack of data and waged mainly on ideological and emotional arguments.  The lack of an acceptable factual basis is evident in:

  • Government, AgriSA and Afriforum operating with different figures for categorising land ownership according to race;
  • The number of farms on the list for the first round of expropriation.  (If there was such a list).
  • Uncertainty about the number of recipients of free subsidy houses (where transfer of title has not taken place) and how these properties should be counted.
  • Arguments that expropriation would kill the economy simply being countered with promises that the economy would not be harmed.

At the public consultations the facts applied were almost always derived from (and limited to) local situations and narratives with no or little attention to systemic information. EOSA therefore analysed last year’s WEF’s Global Competitiveness Index (as part of our enterprise research on relevant data and statistics) to assess whether there are some global indicators to inform the debate.  Several significant correlations are evident from the WEF data:

  • Highly competitive countries have strong protection of property rights.
  • High per capita GDP goes hand-in-hand with property rights.
  • Poor policing and high cost of crime for businesses are not characteristics of highly competitive countries.

Continue reading “Government sabotages growth through property rights uncertainties and ignoring Moody’s warning shots”

Turning ad hoc-decisions into “add havoc” decisions: Updated prospectus shows SA has much “emerging” to do…

If the Ramaphosa quest for pursuing economic growth and restoring full investment status for South Africa was packaged as a new venture in January it would have received substantial interest. In light of the tsunami of promises about FDI since then, it may be time to look at an updated “prospectus”.

Indicator: Economic growth is the highest priority

In his “New Deal” Ramaphosa promised to keep “an unrelenting focus on growth”. He stated: “We must be bold and determined. We should be targeting 3 percent GDP growth in 2018 rising to 5 percent growth by 2023.”

Prospectus update:

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The Messenger (25 July 2018)

Continue reading “Turning ad hoc-decisions into “add havoc” decisions: Updated prospectus shows SA has much “emerging” to do…”

If you thought the S&P and Fitch downgrades scare investors away… Government’s security & protection deficit prevents a million local would-be entrepreneurs from investing

Whilst the downgrading of investor status by Standard & Poor and Fitch already drives foreign investment away from South Africa with capital flight from the JSE, at the local front ineffective crime prevention by the Government is one of the largest disincentives for enterprise investment:  a million people would have considered home-based businesses were it not for criminality. Continue reading “If you thought the S&P and Fitch downgrades scare investors away… Government’s security & protection deficit prevents a million local would-be entrepreneurs from investing”

If monopolies are the problem, start dismantling the worst: the State-owned Enterprises

Rating agenciesWith Moody’s soon to announce their assessment of SA’s credit risk, Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba made it clear that a white minority was controlling the economy through a monopoly and that was now to change.  Gigaba, speaking mostly in isiZulu, said “The economy is controlled by a minority; they are a monopoly. There are a lot of companies owned by very few people and the services and products on offer enrich these few people.” (Gigaba: It is time to put us first ).

Addressing an ANC Youth League event in Pinetown, Gigaba remarked that there was an agreement in 1993 that white people would continue to have a say in the economy.  The ANC stayed committed to this, “but now has come a time for change. It is time to put us first.Continue reading “If monopolies are the problem, start dismantling the worst: the State-owned Enterprises”

With Gordhan out of the way Gigaba seems keen to embark on an anti-growth and anti-poor strategy

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Malusi Gigaba (GCIS)

One would expect Malusi Gigaba as new Minister of Finance to consider avoidance of further down-grades by rating agencies as his top priority. Policy confusion and instability coupled with growth unfriendly strategies already caused the Fitch and the Standard & Poor downgrades. However, Gigaba’s comments yesterday indicated that he is more concerned about growing black owned enterprises than about growing the economy or receiving value for public money. Continue reading “With Gordhan out of the way Gigaba seems keen to embark on an anti-growth and anti-poor strategy”