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Proletarian shopping at the Soweto Maul: Cele’s whistling in the graveyard doesn’t scare off the criminals

SA’s 2018 Crime statistics & the economy (1)

SA is increasingly deteriorating into a combination of the Wild West and a Mafia state with Government incapable of keeping crime in check. Minister Beki Cele admits “the ball was dropped” but remains adamant that “(w)e haven’t reached a state of lawlessness in South Africa and we won’t”.

The South African population begs to differ:  Crime pays… and quite handsomely as well.

Fred Mouton on crime stats

The returns on crime far exceeds returns on long-term investment in blue chip stocks.  South Africans’ trust in and reliance on the police is scarcer than icebergs in tropical oceans.  And inefficient policing doesn’t only kill the economy:  it kills justice as well.

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Government sabotages growth through property rights uncertainties and ignoring Moody’s warning shots

The heated debate between proponents of property protection and those in favour of  confiscation (expropriation without compensation) has been characterised by a lack of data and waged mainly on ideological and emotional arguments.  The lack of an acceptable factual basis is evident in:

  • Government, AgriSA and Afriforum operating with different figures for categorising land ownership according to race;
  • The number of farms on the list for the first round of expropriation.  (If there was such a list).
  • Uncertainty about the number of recipients of free subsidy houses (where transfer of title has not taken place) and how these properties should be counted.
  • Arguments that expropriation would kill the economy simply being countered with promises that the economy would not be harmed.

At the public consultations the facts applied were almost always derived from (and limited to) local situations and narratives with no or little attention to systemic information. EOSA therefore analysed last year’s WEF’s Global Competitiveness Index (as part of our enterprise research on relevant data and statistics) to assess whether there are some global indicators to inform the debate.  Several significant correlations are evident from the WEF data:

  • Highly competitive countries have strong protection of property rights.
  • High per capita GDP goes hand-in-hand with property rights.
  • Poor policing and high cost of crime for businesses are not characteristics of highly competitive countries.

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From idiom to disaster: the radical transformation of “daar’s ‘n drol in die drinkwater”

The incapacity of Government to fulfil its basic task to effectively protect the rights and property of all persons (natural and juridical) thereby ruining economic growth, is matched by its dedicated neglect of scarce natural resources. In a water-scarce country like South Africa this amounts to much more than an ecological disaster: it borders on economic suicide.

Like people, no single enterprise can thrive without access to reliable water. The situation in South Africa remains far better than in most African countries. However, not every middle-income country can boast its Government has systematically:

Daar's 'n drol in die drinkwater

  • undermined its own water resources by extending (within a mere 12 years from 1999 – 2011) the poor ecological condition of its main rivers by an astounding 500% with some rivers pushed beyond the point of recovery (March 2018 Draft National Water and Sanitation Master Plan);

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Turning ad hoc-decisions into “add havoc” decisions: Updated prospectus shows SA has much “emerging” to do…

If the Ramaphosa quest for pursuing economic growth and restoring full investment status for South Africa was packaged as a new venture in January it would have received substantial interest. In light of the tsunami of promises about FDI since then, it may be time to look at an updated “prospectus”.

Indicator: Economic growth is the highest priority

In his “New Deal” Ramaphosa promised to keep “an unrelenting focus on growth”. He stated: “We must be bold and determined. We should be targeting 3 percent GDP growth in 2018 rising to 5 percent growth by 2023.”

Prospectus update:

Screen Shot 2018-07-26 at 6.01.54 PM
The Messenger (25 July 2018)

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Pro-poor LED fails our cities, towns & the poor: Enterprises of the right kind generate city growth

There is an intriguing symbiosis between cities and towns on the one hand and enterprises on the other. As the world population urbanise, so are business activities.

Physicist Geoffrey West in his “Scale:  The Universal Laws of Life, Growth and Death in Organisms, Cities and Companies” says based on city growth one can state precisely what will happen with the number of businesses in that city: a doubling of population does not require a doubling of grocery stores or filling stations, economies of scale kick in in a predictable manner. The reverse is also true.

Geoffrey West & Scale

Unfortunately, South Africa’s economic and enterprise development policies and strategies ignore these predictable realities. In addition, LED plans by municipalities in the main demonstrate a lack of understanding of what drives development.

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Creating jobs and reducing poverty: why not enable the informal sector properly?

Author: Frederick Fourie

President Cyril Ramaphosa aims to set the country on a new path of growth, employment and transformation. Key to this are action plans for employment creation, to be deliberated at a jobs summit.

The South African Informal Sector: Providing jobs, reducing povertyA new edited volume, published by HSRC Press, flags the importance of explicitly addressing the informal sector in such initiatives, given the key role it plays in providing paid employment and reducing poverty. The book is based on research done in the Research Project for Employment, Income Distribution and Inclusive Growth (REDI3x3).

This research shows unambiguously that the informal sector is an important source of employment (and of paid employment), with a growing propensity to employ. Regrettably, for many decades the sector has remained forgotten or, at best, in the margins of economic analysis and policy consciousness. Many policy makers appear to group it together with formal SMMEs. Such an approach risks missing key elements of the ‘forgotten’ world of informal enterprises – their potential, the constraints they face, their particular vulnerability, and the policy support they need to be viable and self-standing.

How many jobs are created in the informal sector?

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