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The fight is really against the ‘lockdown virus’ – help PANDA

Businesses in South Africa are launching a fundraising campaign today, to crowd-fund R250 000 by 15 November. This fund aims to make South African-based advocacy group, Pandemic Data and Analytics (PANDA) the world-leading organisation against lockdowns. 

The crowd-fund comes at a time when several European countries are reimposing lockdowns and in the same week as South African Minister of Health, Zweli Mkhize, mooted new restrictions locally. 

Piet le Roux, co-ordinator of Business for Ending Lockdown, says “Lockdowns are proving to be contagious. Despite deaths due to Covid-19 being at least an order of magnitude below what was initially used to justify lockdowns, several governments around the world are now bringing them back. We need PANDA – as an interdisciplinary advocacy group – to counter this second wave of lockdowns now inflicted upon many countries and the increasing talk of a ‘new normal’. It has become evident that the return to sound health management and economic stability requires international co-ordination and there is no organisation better placed for this than PANDA.” 

“With their own money and time, PANDA have become the number one advocacy and research organisation against lockdowns in South Africa. They took it to the next level in recent weeks, when they recruited top experts from Oxford, Harvard, Stanford and around the world. They are now the top team globally.” 

“To kickstart their internationalisation, they need R250 000 by November 15. Naturally, this will not come close to going all the way for what needs to be done, but it will give them the foothold they need to turn the tide against lockdowns on an international level and in South Africa. It will cover initial operational, research, logistical and communications expenditure.” 

The crowdfund is hosted by Business for Ending Lockdown, a group of prominent business organisations in South Africa. Business for Ending Lockdown’s demands include ending lockdown, lifting the state of disaster, and converting all regulations to voluntary recommendations. Its signatory organisations represent more than 50 000 businesses, with several thousand more having signed up individually. For more on Business for Ending Lockdown, or to donate, visit www.endlockdown.co.za

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Ramaphosa’s bold plan (1): Is ‘buying local’ BEE disguised by a face mask?

Johannes Wessels
@johannesEOSA1

If Ramaphosa’s bold plan to restart the economy was a film, the premiere already proved it’s not an ‘out-of-the-box’ blockbuster that will rake in Oscars for economic growth and sustainable job creation. Growth through state-led infrastructure development XXI is a lame sequel fit for an infamous Razzie award.

Like its predecessor – the lengthy National Development Plan – the Economic Reconstruction & Recovery Plan (ERRP) is a sure box office flop.

The ERRP announced by the president after lengthy consultation processes with big business and big labour states “Non-implementation of the ERRP could lead to loss of economic capacity, including collapse of the supply capacity, consumer and business confidence, the labour market and increased vulnerability of the poor. The overall plan aims to mitigate these risks”.

This script suggests its authors live in a make-believe reality: South Africans, whether tax payers or the growing number of unemployed, know consumer and business confidence and employment are not waiting for collapse through the non-implementation of a plan. It has collapsed already and was meticulously crafted by the very same government now purporting to be capable of getting the economy firing on all cylinders again.

There is a hidden sub-text as well: Covid 19 was the excuse to gain more arbitrary power and programs to recover from the lockdown devastation are aimed at cementing these arbitrary powers.

Continue reading “Ramaphosa’s bold plan (1): Is ‘buying local’ BEE disguised by a face mask?”

Is it right to pay tax when clean and safe hands are missing at the till?

Johannes Wessels (@johannesEOSA1)

SARS commissioner Edward Kieswetter’s biggest headache is not the gaping R300 billion crater in tax income this financial year or the growing Everest of assessed losses for companies that will impact negatively on CIT for years to come. His biggest problem is how to convince taxpayers to sustain a government that under the pretext of “a better life for all” has served up a toxic mix of corruption, wastage, mismanagement and anti-growth policies.

In addition, the very same government has doggedly pursued a lockdown strategy not underpinned by much logic that could yield any outcome other than a severe economic disaster with long term humanitarian effects. These effects include shortened lifespans, poverty related deaths, and deaths from medical conditions the government deemed non-essential. The toll of this inept strategy will in all likelihood dwarf the real Covid 19 death toll.

Lockdown has mowed down millions of jobs and several hundred thousand businesses. Those that survived have been severely crippled: they have a radically reduced income, have run up losses or have achieved less than half their previous taxable income.

One recalls the words of Saint Augustine, bishop of Hippo Regius in North Africa, whose theology and philosophy influenced ancient as well as modern thought: “Without justice, what are kingdoms but great bands of robbers?

Tax compliance in a lockdown context

Continue reading “Is it right to pay tax when clean and safe hands are missing at the till?”

Skills more important for the economy than splitting fine or frizzy hair: it’s education, not race, that counts

Johannes Wessels (@johannesEOSA1)

A tumult about a shampoo advertisement diverted attention from the biggest economic decline under the ANC government to date. A quarterly GDP figure that confirmed the country is plunging into poverty got less attention than a Clicks advertisement. The deteriorating economy will entrench the country in the bottom half of the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), making it less and less attractive as a destiny for both skills and capital.

Splitting “frizzy and dull” hairs from “fine and flat”, however, is apparently for South Africans far more important than worrying about an additional three million unemployed or thousands of businesses pushed into the abyss of loss and debt. Reading Figure 1 (ECI data) reminds of the typical good-news, bad-news joke: the bad news is that SA has slipped from the top third of countries to the middle third. The good news is that this ranking is far better than where the country is heading for. The ECI, developed by Ricardo Hausmann of Harvard and Cesar Hidalgo of MIT, measures the productive capabilities of large economic systems, whether cities, regions, or countries and is based on the knowledge accumulated in a population that gives expression to the diversity and complexity of economic activities. 

Almost simultaneously with the DA’s embrace of non-racialism as a pillar of their redress strategy that will not use race as a yardstick to address inequality, the 2020 Q2 GDP demolition figure was released. The throttling of the economy by the government’s lockdown strategy made far less ripples than what TREsemmé claims to smoothen out in frizzy hair.

The commentariat treated the DA like TREsemme

It was not only the Twitterati that underplayed the economic news: the same sentiments dominated in serious opinion pieces and radio and TV talk shows. And the commentariat effectively placed the DA in the same box as TREsemmé:

  • Carol Paton, editor at large of Business Live, reckons race will matter forever and lamented the DA’s policy removal of race-based redress “since that will affirm suspicions that the DA is a party whose real agenda is to defend white privilege by denying that such privilege exists at all”. 
  • Stephen Grootes, radio presenter and Maverick columnist, echoed that “firm evidence and the lived experience of South Africans” indicate whites are rich and blacks are poor.

A Coalition of the Offended encompassing inter alia Julius Malema, the Daily Maverick, Justice Malala and Twitters’ @BiancavanWyk16 emerged: all deeply shocked and emotionally wounded, found Clicks’ sacking of an executive and suspension of selling TREsemmé insufficient.

Some called for “attacks” on Clicks stores and the malls that provide rental space for Clicks. Others demanded a sort of #BlackHairMatters kneeling, some were just happy to find something to be unhappy about and some considered the actions of others in the coalition either overboard or underwhelming.

Whilst one can understand that the EFF, the ANC and a plethora of beneficiaries or wannabe-beneficiaries of BEE, are obsessed with affirmative action, expropriation without compensation and preferential procurement mechanisms enabling hiked prices, it remains amazing that leading commentators such as Paton and Grootes ignore the hard evidence that race is not the best proxy for measuring inequality and that the application of race fails to target those really at the bottom of the pit. 

Way back, Census 2011 already provided evidence that education is a far more reliable marker.

Race as a marker for household income inequality weighed and found wanting

Continue reading “Skills more important for the economy than splitting fine or frizzy hair: it’s education, not race, that counts”

Thanks to the lockdown you are much poorer and deeper in debt (also the wasteful debts government incurred)

Johannes Wessels (@johannesEOSA1)

South Africa’s economic growth rate has dropped through the floor: the lockdown economy has shrunk in 2020 Q2 by 51% (Q-on-Q annualised). Whilst the third quarter ending 30 September will register substantial growth, it will not bring the country back to where it was prior to lockdown. As cause (lockdown) and consequence (massive unemployment, poverty and the destruction of existing wealth and the means to generate wealth, i.e. businesses) of this economic meltdown mature, the future bill for yesterday’s stupidity will grow exponentially.

And those that will have to foot the bill will be much poorer with SA fast approaching the door to leave the club of upper middle-income countries to join the ranks of the lower middle-income countries.

The government has been blaming Covid 19 (this time apartheid and colonialism cannot carry the can), talking about “unprecedented economic consequences of the pandemic”. Pres. Ramaphosa refers to the economic effects of the global coronavirus pandemic”.  

And Dlamini-Zuma remains on record (National Council of Provinces, 23 June) that the government was “absolutely convinced the Covid pandemic – and not the lock-down measures was causing the economic damage.

That is a lie and StatsSA is correct with their description attributing the decline to “the impact of the Covid 19 lockdown restrictions”.

Continue reading “Thanks to the lockdown you are much poorer and deeper in debt (also the wasteful debts government incurred)”

South Africa’s lockdown is medically futile, costing lives, wiping out savings & destroying the economy

Public invitation: Launch of The Definitive Lockdown Presentation

TUESDAY, 1 SEPTEMBER 2020

South Africa’s lockdown is medically futile, costing lives, wiping out savings and destroying the economy. In fact, South Africa’s lockdown is turning out to be one of the most harmful lockdowns in the world.

These are some of the points to be made in a new presentation by Pandemic Data Analysis (PANDA) and experts at TransUnion and ETM Macro Advisors, called The Definitive Lockdown Presentation: How lockdown is not helping, costing lives, wiping out savings, and destroying the economy.

The presentation is hosted by the Business for Ending Lockdown (B4EL) campaign.

B4EL invites the media, business representatives, policy makers and the public to the launch of the presentation, via complimentary live-stream, on Wednesday 2 September 2020 at 10:00.

The presentation will be done by Nick Hudson (Actuary and Coordinator at PANDA), Hans Zachar (Head of Emerging Markets at TransUnion Africa) and Russell Lamberti (member of PANDA and Strategist at ETM Macro Advisors).

Viewing or restreaming the livestream

The event will start at 10:00 on Wednesday, 2 September 2020 and a livestream will be accessible from shortly before on various social media channels.

About B4EL

B4EL is an association of business organisations, representing more than 50 000 members, insisting on an immediate and complete suspension of lockdown and the state of disaster. B4EL advocates for the conversion of all compulsory lockdown-related regulations to be converted to voluntary recommendations.

EOSA is a founding member of B4EL and Johannes Wessels of EOSA serves in the Advisory Board of the campaign. Johannes in May already had compared the lock-down strategy to the ill-fated cattle-killing of Nongquase, stating that president Cyril Ramaphosa would become known as Nongquase II.

Statement issued by Piet le Roux, on behalf of the B4EL campaign.