Spending power (wealth/poverty)

Anti-business, Corruption, ECONOMIC GROWTH/ANTI-GROWTH FACTORS, Enterprise profitability, Lockdown, Spending power (wealth/poverty), Tourism & hospitality services

The Vandals are governing

In his weekly letter from the president’s desk (13 April), pres. Ramaphosa lamented the vandalism that had caused the demolition of schools, describing it as “a great indictment of our society”. He pointed to the despicable implications: “When lock-down is lifted and learning resumes, thousands of our children will have no school to return to, depriving them of the right to education…”

The irony of his words is that the government is currently the vandal-in-chief. The damage done to schools in the president’s lament of four months ago is dwarfed into insignificance when compared to the destruction its lock-down strategy is inflicting on South Africans.

The sheer magnitude of their destruction boggles the mind. They have:

destroyed at least one in five salaried positions in the private sector. Bankserv data indicate 20.7% fewer salaries and wages were processed in June 2020 compared to a year before. (These people are not necessarily unemployed as yet, a large percentage has been furloughed);
added at least 2 million of their citizens to the ranks of the unemployed since the start of lock-down;

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Anti-business, Black economic empowerment (BEE), Central planning, Economic freedom, ECONOMIC GROWTH/ANTI-GROWTH FACTORS, Enterprise friendly environment, Free State, Job creation and unemployment, Limpopo, Northern Cape, Public service delivery, Small towns, Small, medium and micro-sized enterprises (SMMEs), SME, Sole proprietors, Spending power (wealth/poverty), State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), Western Cape

GDP shrinkage of 12%: It’s not the virus, but the lock-down, stupid!

Johannes Wessels (@johannesEOSA1) & Mike Schüssler (@mikeschussler)

At the end of the initial 3 weeks lock-down a GDP decline of about 5% was considered as quite a catastrophic outcome. Even at that level, it was considered worth the price since delaying the spread of the Covid 19 virus would give a window of opportunity for the health sector to get beds, ventilators and care protocols in place for the spike that would inevitably come.

The minister of trade and industry (dti), Ebrahim Patel, however dismissed the negative projections of economic shrinkage as mere “thumb-sucking”.

After prolonging the hard lock-down with just a gradual easing to level 4 to end May, the growing queues of the hungry waiting for food parcels, the increase in the claims from the unemployment insurance fund and the drastic shrinking of the state’s purse, would make a 5% decline in GDP a dream outcome.

The GDP figures for Q1 2020 will only be known end June. Data from other countries indicate that those whose governments had opted for a hard lock-down are in for excessive economic damage.

Change in GDP trend is the difference between growth in 2019 and 2020 1^st quarters, implying that the Philippines that experienced a change of -6% went from 5.9% GDP growth in Q1 2019 to -0.1% in Q1 2020. This chart reveals the following:

Countries with a hard lock-down that kept only essential services and providers open, saw an average decline of 5,2% in GDP trend.

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CITIES, TOWNS AND SETTLEMENTS, ECONOMIC POLICY AND STRATEGY, Enterprise dynamics, Enterprise regularities, Local economic development (LED), Population size, Pro-poor strategies, Spending power (wealth/poverty)

Is a pro-poor LED stance justified?

Nel and Rogerson (2016) reviewed Local Economic Development (LED) policy and practice in South Africa. They reported that results have been modest despite the significant support for nearly 20 years put into applied local economic development. They suggested that a potential over-focus on pro-poor local economic development at the expense of simultaneously working with the private sector on pro-market interventions, could be a stumbling block to the potential success of LED.

Mason (2018) stated that poverty is a multifaceted phenomenon and the condition of poverty often entails one or more of these realities: a lack of income (joblessness); a lack of preparedness (education); and a dependency on government services (welfare).

I asked if our research on enterprise dynamics that reported a wide range of regularities in the enterprise structures and dynamics of South African towns and municipalities (some of which have already been discussed here) could help to shed light on a question whether a pro-poor LED stance might be justified.

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